美国生猪供应高于期望值

　　US - So how are hog supplies relative to expectations? That is always a good question to keep tabs on as it has a number of implications for markets both current and future, writes Steve Meyer in the National Hog Farmer. For the most part, our expectations of hog supplies are based on USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports, the most recent of which has proven to be relatively accurate. June’s Hogs and Pigs report was short-term bearish and longer-term bullish. The market inventories were expected to be much larger than one year ago in light of lower porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus losses last winter but the heavyweight inventories were considerably larger even than the average of analysts’ pre-report estimates.

　　美国——生猪供应相对于预期怎么样?这始终是一个值得密切关注的好问题，因为它对当前和未来市场有很大影响，史蒂夫·梅耶在《全国养猪者》中写道。在大多数情况下，我们的生猪供应的预期是基于美国农业部的季度生猪和猪情况报道，最近已被证明是相对准确的。6月的生猪和猪报告中短期利空，长期看涨。市场预计库存比一年前更大，去年冬天猪流行性腹泻病损失降低但是还有重量级库存还相当大，甚至超过分析师估计的平均值。